Against All Odds: Republican Presidential Nominee John McCain Has Insurmountable Odds to Become Our Next Commander in Chief:

Against All Odds: Republican Presidential Nominee John McCain Has Insurmountable Odds to Become Our Next Commander in Chief Because of Parties' Economic Failures:
By Marc Chamot

"Historically no recent sitting U.S. president from that party ever reclaimed the American presidency under these disastrous economic conditions, and to top it all arguably this is the worst since the great American depression of the 1930’s."

“I find it really ironic and hypocritical from some conservatives’ friends of mine.

They like to accuse Bush and the Republicans of spending tax moneys like drunken sailors but in reality they support the Iraq war, and fail to see that the Iraq war costs is what’s driving the higher tax rates and killing the American taxpayers. To make up for their weakness on the Iraq war the Republicans want to go after the fat and pork in social support for hurting Americans.”

“Our economic decline and high gas prices started back around 2003 right before George Bush’s second term and the people voted for his second term anyway, and they’re paying the price for it now. Gas prices have quadrupled under the George Bush’s presidency.”

It comes down to issues and John McCain is once again demonstrating and failing miserably in distinguishing himself apart from George Bush’s and the Republican failed domestic policies. Most Americans, mainly voters are seeing John McCain as the continuation of George Bush in many aspects of American politics.

As some liberals like to call him the new “McBush.” He still hasn’t demonstrated nor taken the populist mantle that may define his possible new administration apart from the status quo that it is now.

Americans in general and even Independents are taking another look at Barack Obama. Regardless of Obama’s ties to unsavory casts of characters in the likes of Jeremiah Wright, known terrorist Bill Ayers and the latest pastor gaffe with Michael Pfleger. Barack Obama has done an excellent job to separate himself far easily from these potential political career-ending casts of characters. Americans have no choice about it now. It’s either take a flowed Barack Obama or get more of the same George Bush policies from John McCain.

Most Americans today are in dire straits and Barack Obama is speaking their language while John McCain is not. As on my previous three postings I had posted before criticizing McCain’s total insistent on pushing failed domestic policies, ignorance and lack of knowledge in what is ailing our economy. This is not the time to be talking about more “Free Trade” and “Globalization” the hallmarks of the failed George Bush and Republican Party domestic policies for the last seven years.

The issues that are affecting Americans are beyond than just affordable healthcare and tax breaks for Americans. It’s the billions of infrastructure dollars we’re throwing away into this war in Iraq. It’s the lack of profit margins for small mom and pop businesses throughout the U.S. It’s the decimation of small American businesses being taken over by national chain stores like Wal-Mart, McDonalds, Blockbusters, KFC, Lowes, Ace Hard wares stores, Home Depot and many others that can afford strong lobby groups to further their profit margins in Washington over the declining American mom and pop businesses. It’s the decimating small businesses and employment opportunities and good paying industry jobs going abroad for most Americans have put us in a real pickle.

The solution to stop these mass exoduses and bleeding of American jobs going abroad is simple! Increase the trade tariffs high enough to force these industries to come back and employ Americans.

According to one survey I saw, gas prices have gone up, cost of living has gone up but the average American salaries and wages have increased very slightly or remained the same since the Bill Clinton years!

Most Americans want change and they are just not seeing it in John McCain.

Conservatisms are tough love. I find it really ironic and hypocritical from some conservatives’ friends of mine. They accuse Bush and the Republicans of spending tax moneys like drunken sailors but in reality they support the Iraq war, and fail to see that the Iraq war costs is what’s driving the higher tax rates and killing the American taxpayers. To make up for their weakness on the Iraq war the Republicans want to go after the fat and pork in social support for hurting Americans.

Another prime example of Republican anti-American worker support is the just recently failed Democrat bill to extend unemployment benefits to out of work Americans. The Republican’s argument was that they were going to be lazy and take the benefits instead of looking for work. But once again the Republicans failed to see the whole picture of the economic situation when there are no jobs available what then for the displaced worker?

Historically the Republicans have failed miserably on this economy. Our economic decline and high gas prices started back around 2003 right before George Bush’s second term and the people voted for his second term anyway, and they’re paying the price for it now. Gas prices have quadrupled under the George Bush’s presidency.

As Politico.com’s article below suggests historically no recent sitting U.S. president from that party ever reclaimed the American presidency under these disastrous economic conditions, and to top it all arguably this is the worst since the great American depression of the 1930’s.

Many historians see little chance for McCain
David Paul Kuhn

One week into the general election, the polls show a dead heat. But many presidential scholars doubt that John McCain stands much of a chance, if any.

Historians belonging to both parties offered a litany of historical comparisons that give little hope to the Republican. Several saw Barack Obama’s prospects as the most promising for a Democrat since Roosevelt trounced Hoover in 1932.

“This should be an overwhelming Democratic victory,” said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran in a Maryland Democratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year, “Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds.” His system gives McCain a score on par with Jimmy Carter’s in 1980.

“McCain shouldn’t win it,” said presidential historian Joan Hoff, a professor at Montana State University and former president of the Center for the Study of the Presidency. She compared McCain’s prospects to those of Hubert Humphrey, whose 1968 loss to Richard Nixon resulted in large part from the unpopularity of sitting Democratic president Lyndon Johnson.

“It is one of the worst political environments for the party in power since World War II,” added Alan Abramowitz, a professor of public opinion and the presidency at Emory University. His forecasting model — which factors in gross domestic product, whether a party has completed two terms in the White House and net presidential approval rating — gives McCain about the same odds as Adlai Stevenson in 1952 and Carter in 1980 — both of whom were handily defeated in elections that returned the presidency to the previously out-of-power party. “It would be a pretty stunning upset if McCain won,” Abramowitz said.

What’s more, Republicans have held the presidency for all but 12 years since the South became solidly Republican in the realignment of 1968 — which is among the longest runs with one party dominating in American history. “These things go in cycles,” said presidential historian Robert Dallek, a professor at the University of California at Los Angeles. “The public gets tired of one approach to politics. There is always a measure of optimism in this country, so they turn to the other party.”

That desire for change also tends to manifest itself at the end of a president’s second term. Only twice in the 20th century has a party won a third consecutive term in the White House, most recently in 1988, when George H.W. Bush replaced the term-limited Ronald Reagan, who was about twice as popular in the last year of his presidency as President George W. Bush is now.
But the biggest obstacle in McCain’s path may be running in the same party as the most unpopular president America has had since at least the advent of modern polling. Only Harry Truman and Nixon — both of whom were dogged by unpopular wars abroad and political scandals at home — have been nearly as unpopular in their last year in office, and both men’s parties lost the presidency in the following election.

Though the Democratic-controlled Congress is nearly as unpopular as the president, Lichtman says the Democrats’ 2006 midterm wins resemble the midterm congressional gains of the out-party in 1966 and 1974, which both preceded a retaking of the White House two years later.
One of the few bright spots historians noted is that the public generally does not view McCain as a traditional Republican. And, as Republicans frequently point out, McCain is not an incumbent.
“Open-seat elections are somewhat different, so the referendum aspect is somewhat muted,” said James Campbell, a professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo who specializes in campaigns and elections.

“McCain would be in much better shape if Bush’s approval rating were at 45 to 50 percent,” Campbell continued. “But the history is that in-party candidates are not penalized or rewarded to the same degree as incumbents.”

Campbell still casts McCain as the underdog. But he said McCain might have more appeal to moderates than Obama if the electorate decides McCain is “center right” while Obama is “far left.” Democrats have been repeatedly undone when their nominee was viewed as too liberal, and even as polls show a rise in the number of self-identified Democrats, there has been no corresponding increase in the number of self-identified liberals.

Campbell also notes that McCain may benefit from the Democratic divisions that were on display in the primary, as Republicans did in 1968, when Democratic divisions over the war in Vietnam dogged Humphrey and helped hand Nixon victory.

Still, many historians remain extremely skeptical about McCain’s prospects. “I can’t think of an upset where the underdog faced quite the odds that McCain faces in this election,” said Sidney Milkis, a professor of presidential politics at the University of Virginia. Even "Truman didn’t face as difficult a political context as McCain.” http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080615/pl_politico/11090

Sphere: Related Content