It’s NO-Brainer Folks; 2012 Elections Analysis; Polls Showing Possible GOP/Republican Presidency, with More Democrats in Control of U.S. Congress:

It’s NO-Brainer Folks; 2012 Elections Analysis; Polls Showing Possible GOP/Republican Presidency, with More Democrats in Control of U.S. Congress:

By Marc Chamot

2012 Poll analysis: As it stands now, don’t be too surprised we’re going to see the reverse of American politics in the upcoming 2012 elections. 

We could be seeing a Republican presidency, with bigger Democrat control of the U.S. Senate and with GOP/Republicans barely holding the majority in the U.S. House.

After GOP political disasters of 2000 to 2006, who had total control of the U.S. presidency and congress, and then after the Democrat’s FIASCOS of 2008 to 2012, when they had total control of the presidency and U.S. congress, voters have learned that same PARTY control of Washington is not the solution.

It’s a power grab within the parties to pass unpopular, special interests laden and crony agendas, rather than finding REAL solutions for the public at large. In other words American voters, mainly Independents, will make sure this would NEVER happen for quite a while.

I Marc Chamot, a VERY strong believer of polls, they are scientific and pretty much accurate, but whether by sheer ignorance or arrogance, Washington politicians don’t want to believe in polls, or just ignore them all together.

Leading into the 2006 congressional Midterm elections, unpopular GOP/Republicans under former President George Bush, totally ignored polls that were showing they were going to get a drumming in the upcoming elections and they DID.

Then leading up to the 2010 Midterms, polls showed that Democrats were going to get another trouncing, they ignored the polls, including Obama and they did. Waves of GOP/Republicans took back the house.

Now polls everywhere are showing President Obama’s slimmer hopes of getting re-elected for a second term, and polls are showing that GOP/Republicans are going to LOSE more seats in the U.S. Senate, and possible lose some of their House majority.

Why? It’s no brainer folks. The state of the economy is going to be President Obama’s undoing. Even though the 2012 elections are a year and a half away, there is absolutely no time for President Obama to reverse the economic disasters that has befallen upon this nation.

Not only VOTERS are very disillusioned with Obama’s sorry performance, voters are not happy with GOP/Republicans in the U.S. Senate and the House either. Mainly the powerful voting blocs of Independents, they despise current crops of GOP/Republicans in U.S. congress far more than President Obama.

Every poll is showing that. With this in mind, it does not make any sense as to why voters will vote for very unpopular Republicans, when they are far more unpopular in Congress than Democrats.

So what’s going to happen? If things remain more of the same, according to new poll; Source: “A new national poll shows President Obama's edge over a generic Republican challenger in 2012 shrank by 10 points in the past three months.

Now, just 41 percent of registered voters say they would send the president back to the White House while 40 percent prefer to elect a Republican candidate, according to a Pew Research Center survey. In May, the president led a generic Republican, 48 percent to 37 percent.

The Pew poll suggests independent voters are driving this drop. In May, 42 percent of independents supported Obama's re-election, while 35 percent preferred his challenger. Now, that figure is upside down: 31 percent of independents are inclined to vote for him in 2012 while 39 percent want to replace him with a Republican.

Additionally, 54 percent of independents disapprove of Obama's job performance while 36 percent say he is doing a good job as president, down 13 points since May. Among all registered voters, his approval ratings are under water, 48 percent to 44 percent.”

Recently another poll by Zogby/Newsmax Poll: Most Don’t Trust Obama on Economy “More than half of all voters do not trust President Barack Obama to lead America back to economic prosperity, according to an exclusive Newsmax poll.

And the young who turned out in such great numbers for Obama in 2008 have even less confidence in him than those in any other age groups, shows the poll conducted by IBOPE Zogby. Only one in six of those under 24 say they trust Obama.

That could spell disaster for the president next year when he faces voters again, IBOPE Zogby chairman John Zogby told Newsmax. “I don’t see the younger group flipping and voting Republican,” he said. “But I can see them not voting in great numbers. The president cannot win reelection unless he can turn out the support of younger voters.

“They had very high expectations in 2008, but the economy has squeezed them and a significant number have found they aren’t able to get a real start.”

As Obama loses the youth vote, the signs are that those vying to be his Republican opponent at next year’s election see an opportunity to jump in.

The poll comes at a time that Obama’s base appears to be crumbling beneath him. A separate Washington Post-ABC survey shows a huge drop in the number of minority voters and liberals who strongly support the president’s record on jobs and the economy.”

“He has to be deeply concerned that voters simply do not trust him on the economy. We’re getting into campaign mode at a time when the majority does not trust his leadership when it comes to moving the economy forward.

“But at the end of the day the focus on the election is going to be on the economy and the president starts with a deficit.”

Another worrying point for the president is the trust factor among Independent voters who are split 2-1 with the majority saying they do not trust him.

The poll showed that women have significantly more trust in the president than men, with 44.3 percent saying they trust him as opposed to 33.5 percent of men. Among those in families which include either a serving member of the Armed Forces or a veteran 57.1 percent say they do not trust their Commander-in-Chief when it comes to the economy, compared to 52.1 percent of non-military families.

And older people have a higher opinion of the president on trust than the younger, but even among the most supportive group, those over 70, he still cannot command a majority, with only 45.8 percent saying they trust him.

Worst news for President Obama is that he is also losing his key voting bloc with the majority of Millennial VOTERS, WHITE VOTERS ages 25 to early thirties, most of them in the Midwest, those who voted for him in large numbers in 2008.

Under Obama, Millennials Move Toward GOP, “The Millennial generation (those born between 1982 and 2000). A new national poll shows President Obama's edge over a generic Republican challenger in 2012 shrank by 10 points in the past three months.

Now, just 41 percent of registered voters say they would send the president back to the White House while 40 percent prefer to elect a Republican candidate, according to a Pew Research Center survey. In May, the president led a generic Republican, 48 percent to 37 percent.

The Pew poll suggests independent voters are driving this drop. In May, 42 percent of independents supported Obama's re-election, while 35 percent preferred his challenger. Now, that figure is upside down: 31 percent of independents are inclined to vote for him in 2012 while 39 percent want to replace him with a Republican.

Additionally, 54 percent of independents disapprove of Obama's job performance while 36 percent say he is doing a good job as president, down 13 points since May. Among all registered voters, his approval ratings are under water, 48 percent to 44 percent.

 There has been big movement among whites. In 2008 they were 51 to 40 percent Republican. In the first half of 2011 they were 56 to 35 percent Republican -- more Republican than Southern whites were three years ago.

The most noteworthy movement among whites has been among voters under 30, the so-called millennial generation. Millennials voted 66 to 32 percent for Barack Obama in 2008 and identified as Democrats rather than Republicans by a 60 to 32 percent margin.

But white Millennials have been moving away from the Democrats. The Democratic edge in party identification among white Millennials dropped from 7 points in 2008 to 3 points in 2009 to a 1-point Republican edge in 2010 and an 11-point Republican lead in 2011.

There have been shifts of similar magnitude among whites who are low-income, who have no more than a high school education, and who live in the Midwest.”

Poll: Obama loses double-digit lead with independents “President Obama’s appeal among independent voters appears to be slipping, and as a result, he has lost his double-digit lead in polls that measure whether the president or an unnamed Republican is favored to win the White House in 2012.

A new Pew Research Center poll among registered voters, conducted July 20-24, found that 41 percent favor Mr. Obama in next year's presidential election, while 40 percent favor a Republican candidate. In May, Obama held an 11-point lead over a generic Republican candidate.”

With Obama's base tarnished, without most of the WHITE vote and Independent support, it's highly unlikely he'll be able to REPEAT the 2008 miracles again. So that takes care of President Obama’s re-election’s dilemmas. So how about GOP/Republicans?

Tea Party Support For The Republican Congress Plunges “A new Pew poll released today contains some ominous omens for the Republican Party. As national support for the Tea Party declines, support of Republicans by Tea Partiers is also in decline. Only 19% of Americans support the Tea Party now, and within the Tea Party support for the GOP budget plan has dropped from 74% to 52%.

The latest Pew Research Poll has found that the American people are growing disgruntled with divided Congress’ inability to do anything, and they are blaming the Republicans for the lack of progress. The big problem that Republicans face is that they sold their supporters an ambitious and completely politically unrealistic budget and deficit reduction plan that they have not been able to deliver.

After the 2010 elections 35% of Republicans supported their party’s deficit plan, support has now fallen to 22%. Republican candidates used the Tea Party to gain control of the House of Representatives, but there are dangerous signs that these same voters have already grown impatient with the GOP. Support for the Republican Party’s deficit reduction plan among Tea Partiers has plunged from 75% just after the election to 52% now.”

CNN Poll: Democrats up 50-46 percent in battle for House “According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday, the Democrats have a four-point margin over the Republicans in the battle for control of Congress. The poll indicates that 50 percent registered voters say if the election for Congress was held today, they would vote for the Democrat in their district, with 46 percent saying they would cast a ballot for the Republican in their district. The Democrats' four-point margin is within the poll's sampling error.”

Unless there is a BIG improvement in the direction of this country coming from both parties, it’s no-brainer folks; voters are going to PUNISH President Obama, along with these ineffective crops of GOP/Republicans in 2012. This is what I am currently seeing in the polls, and there’s no doubt about it!